[Sea of Time]

Alright, for anyone who watches PTI on ESPN (I can guarantee that's only me), odds makers is a game the hosts play as part of their sports talk show. I'm looking to apply that game to the console wars.

Basically, in your post, you will ask a question that can be answered by a percentage point. In the following post, another member will post their percentage point and give an explanation. Then, they will ask a question, and so the game continues.

I know it's confusing, so let me give you guys a solid example.

Quote

What is the likelihood of the Nintendo Wii selling more units than the Playstation 3?

Quote

85%

The Nintendo Wii has been marketed well and has a huge lineup of games that well outmatch Sony's lineup for years to come. Also, fans will flock to this system and it appeals not only to them but to the casual gamer.

What is the likelihood of Super Mario Galaxy selling more than Super Smash Bros. Brawl?

And so it continues...

The questions, as the placement of the topic suggests, should only be related to console gaming. Do not include computer gaming here because let's face it, the console games forum is a lot more popular than the computer games one. The questions do not have to be related to the next-gen consoles however, so you are free to ask questions like, "What is the likelihood that in twenty years, people will remember Golden Sun?" You are also free to debate another person's point in your post, as long as your post includes an answer to the member's question above you.

I thought this was an original idea, and although this post is long, the idea of this topic is relatively simple. The idea was to have a game outside the common room, and I hope we can make this a success.


So, I'll get it started with the question above:

What is the likelihood of the Nintendo Wii selling more units than the Playstation 3?

[Golden Legacy]

Brilliant topic, SoT.


75%

I recognize the Sony brand and the PlayStation name. I know that the hardware the PS3 has could easily let it last a solid ten years on the market. However, the price - say what you will about it, try to justify it as you will, there's simply no way that price will ever appeal to the mass market - not now, and certainly not in the next year or two.

Wii, despite it being graphically weaker, is a dramatically different and cheaper enough console to justify it outselling the PS3, at least in the first few years, by a good margin.

That said, there is always the possibility that Sony lowers the price sooner than I expect, or really advertises its product enough to the average consumer to view it as a "supercomputer" of sorts - in which case, it will sell.



Which do you think gamers will favor more - the Xbox 360 controller, or the PS3 sixaxis (or basically, which is more important - the rumble feature, or the motion sensing?)

[Lemontime]

That.. Wasn't a percentage post.

But here goes.
I think the rumble feature in the Xbox 360 controller is much more important. The controller vibrating can really make a big difference to the gameplay, and the over-all feel of the game. However the Playstation 3 only have motion sesitivity, which was obviously ripped off the wii. And it seems like that in the PS3 controller would be pretty akward.
In closing, Xbox 360 Rumble - 85%. PS3 Motion Sensitivity - 15%.

What are the chances of the Nintendo Wii winning this generation?

[Golden Legacy]

My fault, I realized my error.

Well, if by Nintendo Wii winning you mean will it outsell its competitors - it's basically what my first post says, except I'd reduce the chance to around 55%, since the Xbox 360 is a stronger competitor now.

What are the chances for each console to hit the 20 million units sold mark? (i.e. how likely do you think that the Wii and/or the PS3 can catch up with the Xbox 360's one year, and ten million systems sold, lead?)

[Aquamarine]

Xbox 360 - 100%

Wii - 100%

PS3 - 85%

Considering all three of the previous generation consoles sold over 20 million units(PS2 sold about 100 million, Xbox around 22 million and GameCube 21 mil) I don't see why these wouldn't be able to, especially since the video game market has been expanding rapidly in the past few years. It's already obvious the 360 will reach that mark. The Wii is already catching up to the 360, and once all the big games are released and Nintendo manages to make more(read: enough) systems, I'm sure it will go beyond the 20 million mark. As for the PS3, people will want it when the price goes down, the only thing going against it is the number of units Sony can make.

What do you think is the likelyhood of Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo each still releasing new consoles in 10 or so years time(this is a percentage question!)?

By the way, excellent idea, SoT.

[Sea of Time]

Sony: 30%
Nintendo: 75%
Microsoft: 50%

I think that Sony will not have to release a new console for at least ten years, because they really have a system that is not only built to last, it's got technology five years ahead of its time. For Nintendo, they will probably need to catch up graphically with its competition, when the novelty of the Wii-mote wears out. For Microsoft, I'm not sure if their system was built to last as long as the PS3. But in ten years, they will probably update to stay in competition.

What is the likelihood that there will be another Zelda game for the Wii?

EDIT: Please make sure your questions can be answered with a percentage point. Also, they should be able to be answered with only one percentage point, not three or four.

[Golden Legacy]

85%

Back at E3 2005, Iwata stated that "next-generation versions of Mario and Zelda are already in development" for what was then called the Revolution.

Whether he meant Twilight Princess is debatable (and unlikely, in my opinion), considering that the decision to even make a Wii version of Zelda came later on.

Also, in a recent article in the GameInformer magazine, in the rumor section, it stated that sources had indicated that Nintendo was already "deep in development" with the next iteration of the Zelda franchise.


That said, also remember that TP started off its life as a GameCube title, and made it to Wii just in time for launch. The Wii has another solid five years of gaming ahead of it, and I am sure Nintendo is already working on a title designed for the Wii from the ground up.


How likely do you think that Microsoft will release an Xbox 360 with a built-in hard drive (which has been rumored for some time)?

[Toasty]

20%

I highly doubt it. Unlike what Sony has done for their systems, and Nintendo for their hand helds, Microsoft doesn't (or at least hasn't yet) made any upgraded models. The system that supercedes the 360 might, but what was great about the 360 in the first place, was that if your 360 failed on you, or if they do make an upgraded model, then you can just pull out your hard drive and transfer it to the new system.

What is the likely hood of the Wii becomeing the best selling console of all time?

[Sea of Time]

40%

I'm not sure what the best-selling console of all time is right now (I'm guessing the PS2?) If it is the PS2, I highly doubt the Wii will sell more copies than the PS2. It may not even sell as many copies as the 360. But only time will tell.

What is the likelihood that in twenty years Nintendo will no longer be a gaming company?

[Aquamarine]

Sea_of_Time, on Jan 23 2007, 06:42 PM, said:

What is the likelihood that there will be another Zelda game for the Wii?

Sorry for talking about an old post, but I just wanted to say that a new Zelda is already in the works and has been for a whole year.

Now, to answer your newest question:
5%

Before the Revolution's inovations were made public I thought this would be Nintendo's last home console. If you had asked will Nintendo still be making home consoles in twenty years I would be less sure they would, but Nintendo can always go multi-platform like Sega, and they will be extremely successful if they do. Their games will always sell, on whichever console they make them, and it is very unlikely they will ever stop making portables, considering how much of the market they own and how much money it brings them.

How likely do you think Super Smash Bros. Brawl will have online multiplayer?

[Golden Legacy]

85%

SSBB is going to be Nintendo's premiere online multiplayer title, without a doubt (more important than even Pokemon, in my opinion, although that title will also be important). I think, from the very beginning, Nintendo is intending this title to be online - the only reason I'm not giving it 100% is that Sakurai himself said that implementing online capabilities for the game is difficult (those weren't his exact words, but they were something like that). Which leads me to believe that, if worse comes to worst, the online functions of SSBB may just be something like online rankings, etc.


How likely do you think Nintendo will introduce the successor to the GBA in the next two years?

[Sea of Time]

30%

A good question, but with the success of the DS, I don't think Nintendo will follow through on their "three platform" console releases. The GBA has been phased out, and I don't see the need to release a successor.

What is the likelihood another iteration of the GBA (Micro, SP) will be released in the next two years?

[Golden Legacy]

20%

Same reasons that you stated.


Let's shift our attention to Sony. What's the likelihood that Sony will release a new version of the PSP (either a "PSP 2", or a new design, or one with a hard drive, etc.) in the next two years?

[Toasty]

35%

Well, seing as the PSP sucked so bad, they probably won't. But if they actually try with their games, and provide cheaper means of obtaining media (i.e. mabey they'll go with chips like the DS instead of UMD's), we may end up with a PSP2 on our hands.

What is the likely hood of at least one of the three leaders in videogames makeing an actual virtual reality like videogame (like in SciFi movies) in the next 30 years? (basically, before we get to old to chew our own food)

[Sea of Time]

45%

Technology has been moving a little slower lately. I'm not sure if virtual reality will ever be a mainstream item, probably only an item for the rich, like going to space.

What are the chances that Sony has a recall (for any reason) on the PS3?

[Toasty]

60%

They had to postpone one shipment already due to Blu-Ray problems. I wouldn't be surprised if they had a recall because of that, or because of over heating. Or the cell processor. Or the hard drive. Or the blah blah blah....

What is the probability of everyone (excluding 3rd world countries) in the world owning a videogame system in the next 20 years?

[Aquamarine]

0%

Every single house having at least one console? No way. Maybe ALMOST all families will have consoles in 20 years, but there is absolutely no way that every single family will have one.

What is the chance of the PS3 being Sony's last console?

[Golden Legacy]

20%

Sony is a huge electronics company. There's no doubt that the PS3 is ambitious hardware, and one that will put the company back several billion dollars, but it has products in other industries that will pull it through.

I think we should expect a greater amount of time before the release of the next PlayStation, but by no means is the PS3 the last one in the line.


What is the chance of either Sony or Microsoft releasing a peripheral for their respective consoles that will mimic the Wii controller?

[Aquamarine]

70%

I think that is extremely possible, considering how popular the Wii Remote is. They would be stupid to leave the Wii as the only console to have a controller like that. Then again, if they were to make the peripherial they might lose money on it. I'm sure there would be less games using it than there will be for Wii, since it would be released far later in the console's life than for the Wii.

What do you think is the possibilty that Microsoft will release a new Xbox at least a year before Sony and Nintendo release their new consoles, as it was with the 360?

~ Level 7 Yoshi

[Toasty]

50%

I really don't have a clue at this point. But about the perifial thing, the PS3 already has a motion sensitive controller.

What is the probability that some random person will create an alpha version of GS3 just as a fan thing, present it to Ninty, and ninty take it and make a GS3?

[FlamingDuck]

5%

I think some guy may create a GS3, but if Nintendo accepts it and publishes it...Well, no.

What are the chances of Duke Nukem Forever being released in the next year?

[Sea of Time]

50%?

I haven't heard about the game, but if it's Duke Nukem, and considering it's 2007, I'm guessing the game will either suck or be unsuccessful. But will it be released in the next year? Meh, I'm not sure.

What is the likelihood of Camelot producing a successful RPG for the last quarter of 2007/first quarter of 2008?

[Toasty]

50%

If they do, it'll be succesful no matter what. But I don't know if they will.

What is the probability of ninty dominating the market for the next ten years?

[Golden Legacy]

90% Handheld, 30% Console

Handheld market, there's no question. The DS has been trumping the PSP in every territory, and it's become a phenomenon in places like Japan (with very strong titles set to come out later this year). As IGN put it, 2007 will be the determining factor for the PSP; it has the chance to pull through, but if it can't match the DS, then it will have effectively lost the battle.

Console market is another story. As much as I believe in Nintendo's philosophy, I don't think it can become the market leader yet. I think it'll definitely do better this generation, and it certainly has the momentum over both PS3 and 360 to keep it going for a few years, but Nintendo's going to have work overtime if it hopes to become #1 again.


Similar question: What is the probability that Sony will dominate the market in the next decade?

[Ravenblade]

40% - With Nintendo fighting well for once and Microsoft catering for more or less the same market as Sony, they're really going to feel the squeeze unless they can find a way to make themselves distinguishable from the Xbox in terms of game variety.

They really have to concern themselves with Microsoft though as Nintendo (wisely) arent getting themselves directly involved with the two others - most people seem to be saying they'll have a Wii and one of the other two. Of course, this will still erode Sony's fanbase a little.

Chances of the Wii setting a new precedent that all future consoles will follow (that of the controllers motion detectors) meaning that the old type of controller will cease to be used?

[Caael]

60%

The motion sensor will, and already has been incorporated into many things ( Damn you, Sony =P) and many many companys will use it, but I doubt that many will try to move away from the classic joypad. Theres only so much things that you can do with a motion sensor, and after a while, new technology will be included in games such as virtual reality, which is becoming more known. But as we know it, Wii has made a path for other companies to follow. Whether they get sued or not depends on how Ninty feels about it =P.

Whats the probability that there will be Wii keyboards for the internet channel and other Wii features like online gaming? ( C'mon, we all know deep down that it's gonna happen)

[Sea of Time]

90%

What would stop Nintendo from doing this? I know that they will have online gaming, and I know that a Wii keyboard would be profitable, so why not? To stay competitive, they will have to do things like that.

What are the chances that Wii sales are up from 2007 to 2008?

[Caael]

In response to mine, using the remote to type is bloody hard

I'd give it about 70%

Its a new year, christmas has come and the majority of people have Wii's. All sold out. And more arent going to be made for at least another month as what i've heard. But as there is such a rush, when more are made, more people will be rushing to get them, but by i'd say August, September time, everybody who wants a Wii will have one and the sales will basically stop, just the games that will be making the money for Ninty

How imminent is an instrument game for Wii? C'mon, it's basically MADE for playing drums.

[Sea of Time]

100%

I'm positive a Donkey Kong rhythym game is inevitable for this system, though I won't be one to buy the game. Donkey Konga was pretty successful, from what I've seen.

What are the chances there will be three more Wario Ware titles before the end of the console cycle?

[Caael]

50%

Depends on how well Smooth Moves pans out. If it's kooky, fun and amusing like Wario Ware should be, then theres a good chance that it will have sequels. But if it asks too much of you, then people will get both mentally tired and physically tired- hardly an audience for a second game

Whats the chance of a TimeSplitters game being made specifically with the Wii in mind?

[Sea of Time]

30%

I don't see that particular series appealing to only an audience of Wii players. I think that if another game in that series does come out, it will be on all the consoles. They may change it up a little for the Wii, but not a specific thing.

What is the likelihood of Halo 3 selling more copies in its first day than Halo 2?

[Caael]

90%

The main people who will buy it are owners of the 2nd game so it will likely be equal or more. And if its on the first day, then they cant speak from experience of the game, but judging from the opinions of halo players, the 2nd game was well appreciated so most of them are likely to buy the 3rd

Chance of an internet messenger being released on Wii

[Sea of Time]

50%

Nintendo seems to be slow to add things to their list of Wii internet capabilities. I don't think an internet "instant" messenger will be that great on the Wii, but you never know, if Nintendo likes money enough, they could do it.

Likelihood of E3 2007 having more hype than E3 2006?

[Caael]

With the new generation of games consoles, 80%

Theres 2 options here
Flop
Success

It all depends on how well the games pan out to be. Just because theres a new console doesnt mean its going to be amazing, a console is nothing without its games, much like a drumkit without drumsticks. Sure, you can do a little bit, but not even a fraction of what you can do with it. And of course its going to have more hype, E3 2006 was building up to the next gen of consoles, and here it is so E3 2007 is showing off the capabilities of the machine

Chance that iPods/MP3 players will be made compatible with Wii
( running out of ideas here, but he, it could happen)

[Sea of Time]

1%

The only conceivable way this will ever happen is if Nintendo releases an Mp3 player, which is really almost impossible. They are a gaming company, through and through, and unlike Sony and Microsoft, I don't think they'll stray from that.

Chances that the PS3 releases a "slimline" model in the next two years?

[Caael]

100%

They did it with PS2, why not with this? Frankly, I dont see the point, much the same with the DS lite and SP, but I still got an SP.

Chances that the Xbox 360 will soon have a controller released with a motion sensor

[Sea of Time]

75%

They seem to be behind in this category so I expect there will be a very good chance that this will happen. Again, it's all about money, and I'm sure a few 360 owners will go for this.

Likelihood that the PS3 games' prices will go down in the next year?

[Golden Legacy]

25%

That's part of the reason the PS3 has had trouble having exclusive games. Development costs are so huge for PS3 development that games need the higher price tag, if they hope to make a profit. And with the PS3's still (relatively) small base of units sold, so far, the prices are not going down any time soon.


Chances that Halo 3 will be the biggest game this holiday season?

[Toasty]

Caael, on Jan 29 2007, 02:54 PM, said:

How imminent is an instrument game for Wii? C'mon, it's basically MADE for playing drums.

There was already a commercial (online) that showed a kid using the remotes as drumsticks. It could easilly be a guitar, or possibly a trombone.

at GL: 99%

Though there are deffinately going to be some really great games comming soon (SSBB, SMG, I don;t kow the titels for the other two consols D:), Halo 3 is quite possibly the most anticipated game ever. I could be wrong though, hence the 99 instead of 100.

What is the probability of the nintendo Wii protecting us from meteors? [/sprint rip off] =P

[Caael]

100% =P

I'd say about 2%

It could be a small meteor, and with your skills from Wii tennis or baseball, you could whack it away.

What are the chances that hackers will find a way to cheat the Wii points system?

[I'm Always BROKE]

Dunno about 40% I think.

Sure they will find a way once, but Nintendo will quickly deal with them. If not, remove the whole Wii Point system...

Sea_of_Time, on Jan 29 2007, 11:57 PM, said:

I'm positive a Donkey Kong rhythym game is inevitable for this system, though I won't be one to buy the game. Donkey Konga was pretty successful, from what I've seen.

WHAT? You just killed a small part from my soul... Screw the rhytym **** Nintendo is coming up with! I want a "real" Donkey Kong game, not just a Super Happy Inovation Title who uses the DK characters for a quick buck. We have Mii Music for that... >_<

But enough about that...

What are the chances that Zelda TP will be the last Zelda for the Wii?

[Caael]

50%

We really dont know. On some consoles, there were 2 games, like Seasons and Ages, and OOT and MM, but things like gamecube, there was only one, so really we dont know. And if there was to be another, it would have to be even better than TP, which at the moment isnt possible

Chances that there will be 5+ driving games for the Wii by April

[Sea of Time]

60%

I was thinking there wouldn't be much chance of this, but then I remembered all the crap third party companies that spurt out games like candy out of a pinata. So, I bet there will be five driving games. And they'll all suck.

Chances that the Wii will actually have a good driving title by mid-June?

[FlamingDuck]

99%

Exite Truck looks pretty awesome.

What are the chances that the PSP will get a killer app within the next year?

[Golden Legacy]

40%

We're talking FFVII: Crisis Core, the next entry in GTA, and (though unlikely), perhaps a Grand Theft Auto. Sony knows it needs a killer title, otherwise it's going to lose to the DS.


What do you think are the chances of Super Mario Galaxy becoming Wii's "killer app"?

[Eugine]

50%

It's either that or Brawl imo... Mario is popular yes, but... I do think it's getting old. Brawl might just be the 'it' title for the Wii, and I'm hoping it does.
Galaxy seems to be innovative yes, but not a title someone will buy a Wii just to play... especially me ^^

What are the chances of Killzone 2 (please know about that game someone x.x) being released this year? Or being the PS3's killer app?

[Aquamarine]

Eugine, on Feb 10 2007, 07:34 PM, said:

50%

It's either that or Brawl imo... Mario is popular yes, but... I do think it's getting old. Brawl might just be the 'it' title for the Wii, and I'm hoping it does.
Galaxy seems to be innovative yes, but not a title someone will buy a Wii just to play... especially me ^^

What are the chances of Killzone 2 (please know about that game someone x.x) being released this year? Or being the PS3's killer app?

If there was no Twilight Princess, Corruption, Brawl or Goddess of Dawn for the Wii, Mario Galaxy would still be reason enough for me to buy the console. And I never buy consoles just for one game. All you people who do not think Galaxy will be THE biggest Wii title of next year will be proven so wrong by reviewers all over.

Anyhow, I've heard of Killzone, but don't know anything about it, so I'll let somebody else answer your question.

[Sea of Time]

What are the chances that the Halo 3 release is so successful it changes the standard on how video games should be marketed and sold?

[Caael]

20%

Halo is a very popular series, but I highly doubt it will change the standard games are made at. Twilight Princess didnt change the standard games were sold and marketed, and the Zelda series have been running a good 20 years. But then again, many people bought an xbox just for halo and halo 2.

What is the chances that xbox sales could double at the launch of halo 3?

[Golden Legacy]

80%

I not only think that sales for 360 will double, but Microsoft will probably sell every single unit that they're producing (nearly so, at least). The question isn't how many units Halo 3 will sell, it's how many units Microsoft will be able to produce to keep up with demand.


What are the chances that 360 will receive a price cut later this year? And the PS3?

[Eugine]

60%,

Microsoft wouldn't cut it price just yet. After all, the 360 is selling extremely well at its current price. Whenever Sony cut's the PS3's price though, most likely Microsoft will cut the 360's price the same, just to have the 'PS3 more expensive than the 360, yet the offer almost identical features' point.
Now Sony cutting the PS3's price this year? No idea. This is something which cannot be answered currently, but into summer, surely we'll be able to speculate. Most likely, if Sony doesn't sell the amount of units it hopes to by the end of year with the current price, it'll cut the PS3 price to increase demand. Confusing? Maybe, I don't have time to read this over x.x

What are the chances of Blu-ray being the new storage format?

[Sea of Time]

10%

No way will Sony win this one out. If HD DVD's are going to become mainstream, it's going to have to be on a format that all the DVD companies can agree on.

What are the odds that the Pokemon Diamond/Pearl sell more copies in the first week than Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire?

[Eugine]

100%. Because it did ^^

What are chances of Halo 3 being the biggest game this year?

[Caael]

50%

With Xbox 360 sales dropping, and Wii rising, there's a good chance that all the hype will be eaten by the Wii hype and Mario Galaxies, and the 'Top 3' games of summer. But considering it's Halo, and nerds need their daily share of Covenant blood, there's a good chance it will dominate.

What's the chance of Brawl being released this year?